The French Prime Minister spoke of a "truth test" in a speech to Parliament on Monday on the urgent need to reduce the debt, ahead of a confidence vote that is expected to lead to the overthrow of his government and plunge France back into political crisis.

After less than nine months in office, François Bayrou has committed his government to a draft budget that includes savings of €44 billion by 2026.

"This test of truth as head of government (...) is something I wanted," declared François Bayrou before the National Assembly, asserting that the country's "vital prognosis" was "at stake" due to its "over-indebtedness" (114% of GDP).

"Our country works, believes it is getting richer, and every year it gets poorer. It is a silent, underground, invisible and unbearable hemorrhage," he said in a speech punctuated by invectives launched by the opposition parties.

"You have the power to overthrow the government, but you do not have the power to erase reality," warned Mr. Bayrou, comparing "submission to debt" to "submission by military force," depriving people of their freedom.

The vote by the 577 deputies is expected to begin at 7:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. GMT). But there is no suspense: the parliamentary coalition supporting the French president does not have a majority, and opposition parties, from the far right to the far left, have warned that they will vote no.

All eyes are on President Emmanuel Macron, who has been forced to find his third prime minister since the 2024 dissolution, which failed to secure a majority in the National Assembly and plunged the country into uncertainty.

- Negotiations and "red lines" -

The far-right National Rally (RN) party is pushing for new legislative elections. According to a poll published Sunday, the RN and its allies are expected to come out on top in the first round with a clear 33% of the vote, ahead of the left and the presidential camp.

Party leader Marine Le Pen learned Monday that she will be tried in January for the appeal of her conviction in a case of embezzlement of public funds in the European Parliament.

She was sentenced in March to four years in prison, two of which were in prison under electronic monitoring, and five years of ineligibility with immediate effect, which would prevent her from running again in the 2027 presidential election.

The option of dissolving the National Assembly has been ruled out for the time being by Emmanuel Macron, whose entourage says he wants to move quickly to appoint a new head of government.

Negotiations have already begun.

The Socialist Party has placed itself at the center of the game, declaring itself "ready" to govern - but with a left-wing government without the Macronists.

The president should therefore instead try to broaden his central bloc and seek a right-wing or centrist figure who would be accepted by the Socialist Party.

But the task looks arduous with parties that are sticking to their positions.

"The current problem in France is that each (party) has red lines, and these red lines make it completely impossible to form a coalition. There is no majority coalition, no coalition that can last," Mathieu Gallard of the Ipsos polling institute told AFP.

Several names are circulating, including those of the Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu, of Justice Gérald Darmanin and of the Economy Éric Lombard.

- Social movements -

In a context of widespread distrust towards Emmanuel Macron, whose popularity rating is at its lowest since he came to power in 2017 (around 77% of dissatisfied according to a recent poll), several deadlines argue for a short vacancy.

A "citizen" movement that emerged over the summer on social media under the slogan "Block Everything," supported by some unions and the radical left, called for the country to be paralyzed on Wednesday. But the true scope of the mobilization—which in some ways resembles the "yellow vest" protests that rocked France in 2018-2019—remains uncertain.

All trade union organizations have called for a strike and demonstrations on September 18.

On Friday, Fitch is due to announce its French debt rating, with a possible downgrade in the current uncertain climate.