Le Sénégal doit-il éviter à tout prix la restructuration de sa dette : L’avis formel de Moubarack Lô (Economiste)
Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko announced on Saturday that, in their discussions with the IMF, a restructuring of the country's debt, which currently stands at 132% of GDP, has been proposed. This option is not at all well-received by the head of government. He fears that the country will be considered "bankrupt" and suffer from this negative publicity. But should Senegal really avoid debt rationalization? Or should it instead agree to renegotiate it? Below are the insights of economist Moubarack Lô.
“The current government inherited a debt. So this government is perfectly comfortable being able to say, ‘I have three options.’ The first option is to say, ‘I refuse to pay the debt because it’s not regular, a good part of it is hidden debt,’ etc. So that’s an option the government could have taken, with the risks associated with such an attitude. But we haven’t heard the government mention that yet. That’s the first possibility: rejecting the debt in part or in full. But it’s clear that rejecting it in full is impossible.”
The options available to the government
The second possibility is to say, "I will negotiate to reduce the debt burden." This could involve debt cancellations, or a reduction in debt interest payments, or a debt repayment plan. The third possibility is to say, "I will not renegotiate my debt; I will pay it in full." Apparently, this is the preferred approach. And those who have chosen this path may have their reasons. Each of these options has its advantages and disadvantages. Only time will tell if the option currently favored by the Prime Minister will prove effective. It is an option, and it must be respected.
To accept or reject debt restructuring
“Personally, if I had been asked my opinion, like any other Senegalese citizen or any other expert in the economic field, I would have encouraged initiating a debt restructuring. Especially a debt that you did not contract, the burden of which is extremely high, while you have ambitions to accelerate growth and investment. In such a case, in my opinion, politics no longer has a place, nor do questions of dignity, national pride, or sovereignty. We must break the deadlock.”
"We are no longer heavily indebted,
"We're heavily in debt."
“The wisest option, if I may use that term, is to renegotiate the debt, to spread it out, to partially cancel it, to reduce interest payments, to buy back some debt, to use all the procedures that have been used within the framework of debt initiatives (World Bank, IMF). Senegal benefited from this in the 2000s. It allowed us to reduce the debt from 46%, if my memory serves me right, to 22% of GDP in three years. While we used to talk about heavily indebted poor countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 46%, today we are at 132%. We are no longer just heavily indebted, we are extremely indebted.”
The realistic option to avoid a risky path
"So today, no one can understand why we can't agree to restructure and renegotiate the debt. This is the option that should be prioritized by the government, because it's the most realistic option to avoid embarking on a difficult path. Because today, nothing justifies mobilizing 5,000 or even 6,000 billion euros every year to pay off a debt."
Bring the debt back to acceptable levels
"So, through these operations I'm talking about, the objective is to bring debt servicing back to acceptable levels that do not hinder the government's economic recovery and diversification goals. Otherwise, you cannot set an ambition to triple GDP per capita by 2050, achieve very high growth rates, and at the same time maintain a debt service ratio above 30%."
Combine with an adjustment program
“For me, the only way forward for Senegal today is to renegotiate its debt, but to accompany this with vigorous adjustment measures and spending rationalization, decided by the government. Because, as the IMF has said, it is the sovereign state that chooses its economic policy. Moreover, the letter of intent addressed to the IMF is signed by the Minister of Finance who, after receiving guidance from the President and the Prime Minister, commits the government to the reforms to be undertaken.”
"We are not seeing this momentum in terms of reforms that would accelerate economic growth."
“Beyond this work of streamlining spending and mobilizing resources, we need to build a competitive economy. This requires incentives, attractive investments, support, and reforms. We don't see this momentum in terms of reforms that would accelerate economic growth, and there's a whole area that needs to be addressed. To do this, we need to regain stability. And stability means renegotiating the debt, restructuring, and reconnecting with the IMF and the international financial community.”
A program without disbursement, to be avoided
“Finding a program with the IMF without disbursements makes no sense. Senegal must mobilize all possible resources. So, we must take the IMF money. The last program was over 1 trillion. We must take that, add the savings we can make through debt negotiation, and add the effects of all the efforts the government is making in terms of spending and revenue. This will allow us to mobilize significant resources that we can direct towards the implementation of the major projects of the Senegal2050 transformation agenda.”
Damage caused by the delay of a program with the IMF
"It's also important to understand that every day that passes without a program with the IMF costs Senegal. This will further damage Senegal's image among investors, potentially leading them to a very low perception of the country. It will be difficult to recover from this low point for a long time, so it is urgent to take the necessary steps now to return to the negotiating table with the IMF and reach an agreement on a program as soon as possible."
Interview by Youssouf SANE
Commentaires (42)
Le Sénégal est un cas clinique intéressant pour le FMI et plusieurs pays. On se demande combien de temps le malade va continuer à souffrir avant de perdre connaissance ou sombrer dans le coma.
Bref, nous sommes de plus en plus convaincus que le FMI retarde les financements dans l'espoir de provoquer un défaut de paiement du Sénégal. Le Fonds pourra alors jouer aux sapeurs pompiers et prouver au monde son utilité.
Vouloir ne pas restructurer la dette sénégalaise est une voie suicidaire dans laquelle veut nous entraîner les autorités.
Encore Merci de ton ananlyse , Brillant economiste.
Qu'il ait raison ou pas sur les dettes cachées, certaines informations ne devait nullement faire l'objet de communication surtout à grande échelle comme il l'a fait pour des raisons purement politicienne : maintenant nous sommes la risée du monde.
Voilà la vérité !
Le cas échéant ce serait une catastrophe nationale
Même si Macky a emprunté des milliers de milliards, on a vu les investissements : le TER , l’autoroute Ila Touba, la nouvelle ville de Diamniadio, le stade Abdoulaye-Wade et la Dakar Arena, BRT, Pont de la Sénégambie, Pont Foundiougne, Pont rosso, pont marsassoum, les autoponts de Dakar, PUDC, Promovilles, PUMA, Bourses familiales, couverture maladie universelle, des ISEP dans chaque Départements pour la formation professionnelle des jeunes, des milliers de km de pistes rurale, des milliers de km de routes, autoroutes ila touba, autroute sdakar Saint-Louis, autoroutes kaolack, début de réhabilitation des chemains de fer, ports de ndayantes, aéroport dans les régions, air sénégal, transport maritime, renforcememnt de l'armée , de la police , de la gendarmerie, Hopitaux modernes séddhiou, kaffrine, Touba, tivaouane, etc.... Dama soneu si lim bi de khadiouma paré.
Le Sénégal avait une bonne signature et tous les investisseurs étaient là.
Mais Sokhor bakhoul
Un mauvais calcul, qui a tourne en catastrophe. Meme Moubarak Lo met ces dettes cachees au conditionnel tellement cest grossier.
Du jamais vu!!!
"Surtout une dette que vous n'avez pas contractée" Donc chaque nouveau regime peut nier la dette contracter par son predecesseur? Et la continuité de l'Etat dans tout ca?
Parfois je me demande d'ou sortent ces intellectuels. On les entend partout dans les média, mais dans qu'ils parlent on se demande s'ils sont sérieux.
By the way Excellentes vacances Mr Sonko pendant que le peuple est sans boussole
Wassalam
Bor , Faye la santt.
Les Sénégalais vont se serrer la ceinture pour deux ou trois années pour payer la dette et nous sommes libres.
Une restructuration reduit vos marges de manœuvre car la dette est toujours presente.
J approve l l'option numéro 2 de Moubarak lo qui est effectivement celle du Gouvernement
Nous restons sur notre faim!
Nécessaire pour qu'on y voit clair.
On doit faire vite et bien
Ousmane sonko n'a pas le profil pour diriger un gouvernement.
La place de Ousmane Sonko est à l'assemblée nationale.
Dans sa carrière profesionnelle, il n'a jamais occupé un poste de responsabilité.
Et vous voulez qu'il fasse des résultats comme un premier ministre,qui est le chef de l'administration.
Ca ressemble vraiment à un suicide collectif.
Le souveraniste, l'orguiel c'est bien mais il faut penser qu'une partie de la population souffre.
Ils ( les admnisrateurs des projets) transfèrent l'argent dans des compes spèciaux et sous comptes et se permettent des dèpenses incommensurables, car le controle de ces fonds n'est pas tres accru, et ils se disent qu'ils doivent dècaisser, pour avoir un taux de dècaissement èlevè.
Un peu de patriotisme dans la gestion des deniers publics est un impèratif!!
Et personne ne fustige.
C'est ça un Economiste, je pense que les autorités doivent vous consulter avant de prendre certaines décisions. La position du pm c comme s'il n'avait pas de conseiller. Abdourahmane Sarr et Djiba sont entrain de dormir ou tout simplement ils sont pas à la hauteur. C eux qui devaient de bonne foi dire la vérité au pm comme le fait Moubarak.
Les Sénégalais sont-ils prêts à contribuer ne serait-ce un mois de salaire ou de pension ? Les milliardaires de ce pays sont-ils aussi prêts à y contribuer comme a décidé la Diaspora récemment ? A l'Etat de lancer aussi ce sursaut patriotique !
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