With projected growth of between 8 and 10%, driven by the start of oil and gas production, Senegal is expected to achieve unprecedented macroeconomic performance in 2025. However, the increasing burden of public debt and its fragile sustainability remain a worrying reality for the Senegalese state.

Invited to the "Seneweb Éco" program this Sunday, January 4, 2026, economist Serigne Momar Seck believes that the country's growth "is taking place in a context of high levels of debt, a significant budget deficit and increased pressure from debt servicing on public finances."

While inflation is falling to around 1% and the oil and gas sectors are driving growth, the government continues to face persistent cash flow problems. "Debt servicing costs continue to rise, which is putting a heavy strain on public finances," the economist points out.

Addressing the issue of public debt, which is approaching 100% of GDP, Serigne Momar Seck asserts that it is becoming increasingly burdensome. "A default occurs when a country is no longer able to honor the principal and interest payments on its debt. However, Senegal continues to make its payments, even if with temporary difficulties," he explains, while citing the examples of Argentina, Greece, and Ecuador.

However, the increasing reliance on regional financial markets, which are more expensive than traditional concessional financing, exacerbates this vulnerability. The suspension of the program with the IMF also complicates access to less costly resources.

Debt restructuring, an option on the table

Considering that debt restructuring is a "tool," Serigne Momar Seck emphasizes that it "is not a catastrophe in itself. Some countries have restructured their debt and have done well. It all depends on the characteristics of the economy," he states, before recalling that restructuring can take different forms such as extending maturities, rescheduling or a temporary moratorium, in order to ease the immediate pressure on the budget.

Furthermore, Mr. Seck advocates for a comprehensive debt sustainability strategy. According to him, the priority is to control the dynamics of indebtedness. "Excessive debt combined with weak growth leads to insolvency," he warns, while also calling for a limit on unproductive borrowing.

The economist therefore calls for accelerating the development of labor-intensive sectors, capable of broadening the tax base and reducing budgetary vulnerability.