"Natural resources belong to the people. They are used to improve their living conditions..." For a long time, the Macky Sall regime boasted of having introduced a revolution in the management of natural resources, through Article 25 of the Constitution resulting from the 2016 referendum.

Yet, when reading the figures on oil revenue, one wonders which people are we talking about: those of Senegal, Australia, or Great Britain? In light of the figures, one might even doubt whether these resources belong to Senegal.

Indeed, in February 2025, the Australian operator revealed that nearly 13 million barrels of oil were sold in 2024 for a total of 595 billion CFA francs. However, the first barrel was sold on June 11, 2024. This means that approximately 600 billion came from oil production in the second half of the year. Given the positive outlook, we can expect the first half of 2025 to provide more revenue. In addition, gas production has started in the meantime. The first cargo left the country on April 15, 2025. This means that there are other oil revenues to be had.

In total, without being an expert, we understand that there is already more than 1,000 billion CFA francs in revenue. By the end of the year, we can expect no less than 2,000 billion CFA francs in revenue from oil and gas.

It was at this point that "Le Soleil" informed us that the Ministry of Finance had revised downwards Senegal's revenue forecasts for hydrocarbon exploitation, due to a drop in prices on the world market. According to the national daily, the State should be content with 227.22 billion CFA francs over the next three years, distributed as follows: 61.59 billion in 2026, 91.93 billion in 2027 and 73.70 billion in 2028.

When Woodside revealed the sale of 13 million barrels, economist Khadim Bamba Diagne pointed out that Senegal would only get a fraction of the 595 million barrels. According to Diagne, production costs account for 75% of revenues. This leaves 25%. "Of this 25%, 80% goes to the oil companies, 18% goes to Petrosen, and the rest goes to the state in the form of taxes. (…) Of the 595 billion in oil sales, I believe the state will get no less than 70 billion."

In truth, Khadim Bamba Diagne was too generous, if we are to believe the initial 2025 finance law. This document maintains that in 2024 and 2025, Senegal should have only 49.65 billion CFA francs and 72.53 billion CFA francs respectively. That is a total of 122.18 billion CFA francs over the two years for revenues not to be less than 2,000 billion CFA francs.

The worst part of all this is that Senegal is currently facing enormous financial difficulties. The country urgently needs liquidity. However, everything suggests that it has no leverage to force oil and gas multinationals to cede a significant share of these revenues, at least until its financial situation improves. Dakar is running on the WAEMU market and behind the IMF and the World Bank while its oil and gas generate billions and billions.

Furthermore, in addition to the money slipping through its fingers, Senegal seems to be struggling to use its natural resources to produce energy. While oil is refined by the SAR, no one knows how. Is it purchased or is it an automatic quota? Silence!

On the other hand, Senelec is clearly having trouble getting gas. We were surprised to learn that the National Electricity Company has been approved to import gas. Add to this the decision revealed by the press to suspend the decision to exploit the Yaakaar Teranga field, and we can better understand the state's woes in this sector.

Moreover, Pastef, through its leader Ousmane Sonko, had promised to renegotiate the contracts. Since then, there has been radio silence. And what's more, Woodside is counterattacking not on the substance, namely the distribution of revenue, but on a dispute over taxes payable to the state. It already smells like the oil curse.